Weekly Trade Commentary: 11th Nov 2012

Related Article: Commentary on 4th Nov 2012

In line with my commentary last week, the US Dollar continues to strengthen after making new highs this week. While my view is long, the dollar seems slightly over extended, I’m expecting a pull back (if any) before taking any action.

With that, my view is that there is EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD weakness, and there is USDCAD and USDCHF strength.

The following is my watch list for the week:

 

(Click on image for Larger View)

  • AUDUSD – The above is a weekly chart for this pair. As shown, price has been making lower highs since July 2011 and has been respecting a decent downward trendline (Orange arrow). The week closed with a high test bar off a 61.8% Fib level (drawn from 14/09 to 8/10) – not shown. My preference would be a bounce off the downward trendline (around purple box). Alternatively, I’ll need some good price action set up before taking it short.

(Click on image for Larger View)

  • GBPJPY – The above is a weekly chart for this pair. This set up is pretty similar to the EURJPY commentary on the 28th Oct. Price is currently at the bottom of a short-term upward trendline/channel. If you’re a less aggressive trader and you did not take the reversal trade from last week, then, a good short entry could be taken when price breaks below and re-test the trendline – making this a classic support turn resistance trendline.

Just to note, I do have a slight concern for this pair. On the larger timeframe, price actually made a higher lower – as shown where the purple box is. Hence, I’ll take the trade (if valid) with precaution.

  • USDSGD – As mentioned on the commentary on 7th Nov, my view on this pair is still bullish. I’ll need a break above 1.225 before taking a 2nd trade. My first trade (as mentioned on my facebook page) got stopped with a breakeven trade.

 

 

Thank you and Happy Trading in the week ahead!!

 

 

 

 

3 Comments

  • Alwin Ng

    Alwin

    Reply Reply November 11, 2012

    Thank you. Hope you enjoyed the articles and any feedback will be welcomed!! 🙂

  • Gully

    Reply Reply November 12, 2012

    Thanks Alwin.. all very clear & concise..

    • Alwin Ng

      Alwin

      Reply Reply November 12, 2012

      Thank you Gully. 🙂

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