Weekly Commentary: 8th Sept 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 1st September 2013

Hello Traders,

The USD index was a rather sideways market this week. Price was slowly crawling higher but Friday results showed that the bears were still around. Based on the sharp bear trend bar on Friday, I find it slightly difficult to see who is in control even though my bias is for price to go higher. Either way, I’m going to stand aside and will watch closely to see who is taking the lead before I make a decision.

The following is my watch list for the week:

08 Sep - USDCHF Daily

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  • USDCHF – Looking at this charts, I can’t help but noticing a potential false break for a short continuation. The minor support & resistance level (~0.938) has been tested several times in the past (blue circles). This is also inline with the bigger downward channel (red channel). Nonetheless, with the USD, I’m cautious that there’s some level of uncertainty in trading this currency pair. Hence, I will wait for the start of the week for more direction and confirmation before taking any trades.

08 Sep - EURGBP Daily

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  • EURGBP – As mentioned last weekend (see article), I was looking forward for EURGBP to hit ~0.84 and I have used that as my first target. It was a pleasant surprise to see price following my plan. Looking at the bigger picture, I would like to see price drop below ~0.84 with conviction and that will officially show a double top reversal pattern, giving me a new Lower Low as confirmation of a down trend. Until it happens, any thing can happen and I will not even be too surprise to see price bouncing north (Green arrow).

08 Sep - USDJPY Daily

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  • USDJPY – As mentioned on 25th Aug (see article), I was expecting price to break out of the triangle and I was looking for a retest of either the trend line or support level (~99.782). On this occasion, it looks like price is re-testing the trend line. Meanwhile, by readjusting the support level, I found a minor level around 98.8 (blue circles) which could support the set up.


Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Please post any questions or comments that you may have at the box below.


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