Weekly Commentary: 28th July 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 21th July 2013

Hi Readers,

The USD index moved lower this week and has been falling since 10th July. Looking at price right now, the bulls seem to be slowly crawling back into the market – as you can see a wedge growing slowly and steadily. With the 10th July as the recent higher high, I would expect price to make a higher low, turning before the $81 mark. Breaking below $81 will only mean a shift in sentiment. Until then, my overall bias is still long in the long term.

The following is my watch list for the week:

 28 Jul - USDCHF Daily

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  • USDCHF – As mentioned on the 14th July (see article), I was expecting price to move lower and it gracefully did. Looking at the chart above, price broke below a soft support level (~0.935) and it looks to continue slightly further south. Having said that, price does look a little over extended. An ideal scenario will be for price to re-test the resistance (old support) before going lower (blue path).

 28 Jul - NZDUSD Daily

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  • NZDUSD – The last time I mentioned about the Kiwi price channel was on 12th June (see article) and to my surprise, the channel has been held on really well. Price has been crawling higher in the last few weeks but it moved with strong conviction this week showing a potential return of the bigger players. On Friday, price closed the week with an inside bar, sitting nicely on a resistance level (~0.808). My bias is for price to move higher. However, I’m not surprise if price moves lower as it bounces off the resistance. With that, I look forward to the start of the week for more directions.

28 Jul - EURNZD Daily

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  • EURNZD – In line with NZDUSD, my bias is for price to move lower. However, with the support level in front of price (~1.636), I would like to see price breaking below before it re-test to level – giving me a nice short entry.

28 Jul - GBPJPY Daily

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  • GBPJPY – Looking at the chart above, price looks like it’s about to break out of the consolidating triangle. When will it happen? I have no idea. Nonetheless, I’m going to keep a close watch on this.


Thank you for reading and happy trading week!


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