Weekly Commentary: 23rd June 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 16th June

Hi Readers,

USD Index made the correction move as expected and closes the week back at $82.60. You never know what will happen but the thing that really interests me now is Price Action. Price has been bullish; in fact, it is more bullish than I expected. Looking at the bigger picture, the probability seems to be increasing for price to continue in the major up trend with the next resistance level at $84. The following is my watch list for the week:

23 Jun - EURUSD Daily

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  • EURUSD – The Euro made a strong pullback since Wednesday and it looks to continue south. The real question is how far south will it go? At the moment, price seems unclear. However, when I look at the bigger timeframe, price seems to suggest that it is still in an uptrend with clear Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). However, the support zone between 1.275 and 1.280 (blue box) will be crucial as that will determine is price will make a new Lower Low or not?

 23 Jun - USDCAD Daily

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  • USDCAD – As mentioned last week (see article), I was expecting price to head north. Unfortunately, price took off before giving me the entry that I wanted. Hence, the only consolation I have was that my analysis was valid. Right now, price just broke above a resistance. Ideally, I would like price to head further north before it pulls back to the 1.04 price level to give me a classic resistance turn support entry. Alternatively, the trend line (Green circles) is still valid and I won’t be surprise if price re-tests the trend line instead. I guess this is all down to price action now.

 23 Jun - EURNZD Daily

  • EURNZD – This currency pair has been pretty bullish for a while now and it is now sitting at fairly strong resistance level – around 1.70. At this point, price does look somewhat over extended but the real question is how will price react to the resistance level? Will it go further north before a correction where we might find a long entry (blue path)? Or will price retrace now for a potential longer term correction?

With that, I look forward to see what I get at the start of the coming week.


Thank you for reading and happy trading week!


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