Weekly Commentary: 21st Apr 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 14th Apr 2013

Hi Readers,

The USD index made a surprised turn around this week. Looking Price Action, you would have seen a long trend bar on Wednesday followed by a decent false break bar on Friday showing further confirmation of momentum. This happened on the USD index as well as on most majors & minors (except USDJPY).

With the bullish price action, I would like to see a break above the near term resistance of $83.50 on the dollar index for a confirmation of a longer term long continuation.

The following is my watch list for the week:


21 Apr - GBPUSD Daily


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  • GBPUSD – As mentioned on 11 Mar (see article), GBPUSD broke a long term Support level. After the break, price made a pull back and it looks like it is ready for a continuation to go south. In line with the analysis on USD Index, I will be looking for short setups in the near future with the near-term target around 1.485.

21 Apr - EURNZD Daily

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  • EURNZD – As shown above, the pair has been cycling nicely in a downward channel with nice touches on the upper and lower part of the channel (Green circles). Price is currently testing the top of the channel (or downward trend line) as well as a resistance level around 1.555. My current bias is to go with the trend and to short it with the immediate target at the resistance zone (purple box) around 1.500 – Green path.

However, if price were to break above the trend line and resistance level, I will be keen to take a long entry if price pulls back to the resistance level to become support – as shown on blue path.

21 Apr - CADCHF Daily

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  • CADCHF – This pair have been trending south with decent momentum and cyclicity. It as respected my channel (blue circles) and it is currently testing a decent support level (green circles). Ideally, I would like to see price break below and re-test the level (new resistance) which will be a good short entry. I will be watching closely.



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