Weekly Commentary: 18th Aug 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 11th August 2013

Hi Readers,

The USD index was a little fiddly this week but this wasn’t too surprising after a few weeks of bear run. The bulls looks like they want to come back but the war seems to be in equal sides at the moment. Looking at price right now, I need a long above $82 for confirmation that the bulls are back and short below $81 to show that the bears are still in control. With that, I’ll trade with caution this coming week.

The following is my watch list for the week:

18 Aug - EURUSD Daily

(Click on image for larger view)

  • EURUSD – Once in a while, I like to zoom out at the bigger picture and this is exactly what I’m doing now. The weekly chart above shows downward channel and the channel is still valid. Price currently testing the upper channel and there seems to be a minor resistance (Green circle) supporting it.

Meanwhile, the purple box also shows that price is ranging. A classic indecision as price tests an obstacle. As a with-trend trader, my bias is for price to go lower. However, the confirmation will come from the daily or even 4 hour charts before I take a trade. I’m definitely keeping a close watch on this.

18 Aug - EURGBP Daily

(Click on image for larger view)

  • EURGBP – Price gapped lower at the start of the week and continued to push south since Monday. As shown in the weekly chart above, price moved lower after the test of the weekly downward channel. Looking at the technical set up at the moment, I’m expecting price to test the next support level (~ 0.84). With that, I’ll continue to find smaller short-term short entries.

18 Aug - GBPJPY Daily

 (Click on image for larger view)

  • GBPJPY – As mentioned in last week’s article (read here), I was expecting price to move higher based on the descending triangle price pattern. To my surprise, it did move higher and it is currently testing the upper part of the triangle. The high test bar looked like a good short and Friday finished with an inside bar.

Would the triangle remain intact? Lets see if we can find more confirmation early part of the coming week.

Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Please post any questions or comments that you may have at the box below.



  • Andrew Cardwell

    Reply Reply August 18, 2013

    Enjoy reading your posts. Good insights.
    Andrew Cardwell

    • Alwin Ng

      Alwin Ng

      Reply Reply August 19, 2013

      Thanks Andrew!!

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