Weekly Commentary: 13th Oct 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 6th October 2013

Hello Traders,

The USD index closed higher this week at around 80.5. As mentioned last week, I was expecting a price pullback. Price bounce off the $80 mark and it seems to suggest a potential longer term bullish run. Unfortunately, nothing is ever certain in the financial market but signs do suggest at least some shorter term bullish price action.

The following is my watch list for the week:

13 Oct - NZDUSD Daily

(Click on image for larger view)

  • NZDUSD – My bearish forecast (see article) on this currency pair did not materialise. In fact, the channel held on very firmly. Nonetheless, no trades were placed and no money was at risk. That on its own is a good strategy.

Meanwhile, looking at the chart above, I would expect price to continue north in the longer term with the target at the top of my upward channel. Nonetheless, I would expect some volatility between now and the top. At the moment, there is a short term resistance level (~0.843), once price breaks above it, the journey north should be fairly straight forward.

13 Oct - USDJPY Daily

(Click on image for larger view)

  • USDJPY – In my last commentary on the Yen (see article), I was expecting price to break out of the triangle. Unfortunately that didn’t happen. In fact, nothing happened and not price is making an even before triangle. As always, the longer the consolidation the bigger the break out. At the moment, price is heading north again. Is this the break that I’m looking for? Who knows? However, I’ll still keep a close watch as opportunities don’t come all the time.

13 Oct - USDCAD Daily

(Click on image for larger view)

  • USDCAD – This currency pair broke out of an old long term upward channel in the middle of September. However, I found a new downward channel immediately and price showed respect for it. Right now, price moved higher and it seems like it is retesting the old channel by testing the extreme. Will this push price to new lows? Or will price stick to the new channel and test the top of it. Trust me, I’m eager to find out as well.


Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Please post any questions or comments that you may have at the box below.

Ps. Watch out for Bank Holiday in the USA. As most of pairs on my watch list are USD related, I might take a back sit until Tuesday.


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