Weekly Commentary: 9th Mar 2014

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Hello Traders,

The USD Index closed at $79.71 which is near the close from previous week. In line with my commentary last week, I’m looking to see some Price Action against the next major support level is around $79. If price goes below that with conviction, that’s also a signal for a bearish USD market.

The following is my watch list for the week:

09 Mar - AUDUSD Daily Forex Chart

(Click on image for larger view)

  • AUDUSD – Since my last commentary on 23rd Feb (see article), price has matured a little more and I now have a few more patterns to give me a bias. Looking at the chart above, I now have an inverse head & shoulder. Price has also been narrowing and a potential wedge is forming (as shown with the downward trend line). Lastly, a downward channel is still valid and price seems to be testing the low of the channel (as mentioned on 2nd Feb). Because there is no bullish confirmation just yet, I’ll be sitting aside but watching very patiently.

09 Mar - NZDUSD Daily Forex Chart

(Click on image for larger view)

  • NZDUSD – Looking at the chart above, the Kiwi looks like it’s in a resistance zone (between 0.841 – 0.852). When prices get into a zone, Price Action gets tricky. Personally, I need a clear break above the zone (green arrow) for a bullish confirmation or a break below for a bearish one. By that I also mean a clean break below 0.841 as price can still bounce from there to head north.

09 Mar - USDJPY Daily Forex Chart

(Click on image for larger view)

  • USDJPY – The Yen has moved higher since my last commentary on the 16th Feb (see article). While my bias is long, it does bother me a little bit when the Friday closed as a high test bar. Zooming out a little further, I realised that price has been testing a previous swing high (~103.5) formed around May 2013. Will price move higher? Let’s see what price is planning to give us.

Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Post any questions or comments that you may have at the box below.

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