Weekly Commentary: 5th May 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 28th Apr 2013

Hi Readers,

The USD index made a lightly lower low on Wednesday (compared to the low on 16th April). The other thing to note is that price did bounce off the $81.50 level which I identified on the 14th April (see article). Overall, PA has given some indication that the dollar is bearish but it has not been a convincing one.

The following is my watch list for the week:

05 May - USDCHF Daily

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  • USDCHF – Price has been moving south with price respecting the weekly downward channel (blue circles). Price did a plunge on the 24th March and made a pull back a few days ago. At the same time, I cannot disregard the potential of a new upward channel (Green circles) that is maturing along. Hence, even though my bias is short, I will be prepared to take this long if Price Action leads the way.

05 May - USDCAD Daily

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  • USDCAD – This pair shows some strong short trend bars recently off a weekly channel (not shown). With the recent lower low, I will be keen to find some short entries. My immediate favourite is a short off the low test bar on Friday.

However, until I get a better idea of what the market sentiment will be on Monday, I will be cautious.

05 May - AUDCAD Daily

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  • AUDCAD – this pair has been in a major range market for a while now and the recent double top shows that the major resistance still holds. Since then, the market has been bearish with strong conviction from sellers. With that, I am looking for short set ups in the near future and that could potentially happen on either of the resistance level shown above.

 

05 May - AUDNZD Daily

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  • AUDNZD – As mentioned last week, my bias for this pair is to go long. Price has been moving sideways for awhile now and it looks like it made a potential false break south (see 4 hour chart above). This looks like a good indication that price is ready to move.

The key here is to be patient and let price unveils itself. With that, I will continue to watch this pair closely.

Anyway, happy trading week ahead!!

 

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