Weekly Commentary: 1st Sept 2013

Previous weekly commentary: Commentary on 25th August 2013

The USD index was rather slow at the start of the week but the bulls showed that they were back since the middle of the week. While it’s too early too confirm (especially with the small pin bar on Friday), the bulls look like they could stay. The start of the coming week – which happened to be the start of the Sept – will give confirmation of who’s in control. If price continues to push higher, I would expect it to test July’s high around $85. However, with Non-Farm results coming out on Friday, I won’t be surprise if the bears jump in.

The following is my watch list for the week:

 01 Sep - EURUSD Daily

(Click in image for larger view)

  • EURUSD – As mentioned on the 18th Aug (see article), I mentioned a potential resistance generated from a confluence of price channel, minor resistance (~1.34) and range market (purple box). While it was a long battle between the bulls & bears, the bears finally took control and pushed price lower this week. If price continues to drop, my first target is the bottom of the range (~1.28) and if that support fails to hold, then it looks like the EURUSD has a long way to fall.

 01 Sep - NZDUSD Daily

(Click in image for larger view)

  • NZDUSD – Will price break below the trend line (blue circles)? Looking at the weekly chart above, price action seems to suggest that it is about to break out of the trend line. The upward trend line – which has held on pretty well since Aug 2010 – is being tested for the 3rd time since June 2013 (not shown) and a third test is usually the most critical. If it does break below, then it will likely show a significant change in trend.

01 Sep - EURGBP Daily

(Click in image for larger view)

  • EURGBP – I have been watching this currency pair pretty closely for awhile now and, at the start of the week, price actually moved above the 0.86 support level before it gave false break high test bar.  I made an intraday short entry and price seems like it’s going in my favour. My immediate target is the near term support around 0.84. If price continues to weaken and it breaks below that level, it looks this pair will have a much further to drop – this is inline with my commentary on the 18th Aug (see article).
  • USDJPY – As mentioned last week (see article), I’m waiting for a break out of the triangle. This week consolidates further while I wait patiently. Let’s see if can get a set up in the coming week.

Thank you for reading and happy trading week! Please post any questions or comments that you may have at the box below.

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